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纽约联储-美联储透明度与政策预期误差:一种文本分析方法(英)-2023.11

# 美联储 # 政策预期 # 文本分析法 大小:2.09M | 页数:47 | 上架时间:2023-12-01 | 语言:英文

纽约联储-美联储透明度与政策预期误差:一种文本分析方法(英)-2023.11.pdf

纽约联储-美联储透明度与政策预期误差:一种文本分析方法(英)-2023.11.pdf

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类型: 宏观

上传者: 谢文晓

撰写机构: 纽约联储

出版日期: 2023-12-01

摘要:

This paper seeks to estimate the extent to which market-implied policy expectations could be improved  with further information disclosure from the FOMC. Using text analysis methods based on large language  models, we show that if FOMC meeting materials with five-year lagged release dates—like meeting  transcripts and Tealbooks—were accessible to the public in real time, market policy expectations could  substantially improve forecasting accuracy. Most of this improvement occurs during easing cycles. For  instance, at the six-month forecasting horizon, the market could have predicted as much as 125 basis  points of additional easing during the 2001 and 2008 recessions, equivalent to a 40-50 percent reduction  in mean squared error. This potential forecasting improvement appears to be related to incomplete  information about the Fed’s reaction function, particularly with respect to financial stability concerns in  2008. In contrast, having enhanced access to meeting materials would not have improved the market’s policy rate forecasting during tightening cycles.

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